Formulating and mastering a strategy to beat the casino is something that most gamblers dream of. We’ve all seen Rain Man and marvelled at Raymond’s ability to count cards.
Many of us have even applied tried-and-tested gambling strategies while playing roulette, including the Martingale, Andrucci, and Fibonacci systems, without seeing significant improvements to our bankroll.
So, with approaches like counting cards too difficult for most people and other gambling strategies like the Martingale unlikely to improve our odds, what role can chaos theory play in beating the casino?
Well, it’s an intriguing question.
Here, we explain how chaos theory can potentially be applied to gambling and draw on a study that once saw a team of researchers beat the house with this approach.
We conclude by considering whether the average gambler could feasibly use chaos theory to beat a casino in practice.
What is Chaos Theory?
Chaos theory is a mathematical theory that studies the unpredictable nature of complicated systems. It can be applied to practically anything, from the boiling lava within the cone of an active volcano to the roll of the dice at a casino craps table.
Fundamental to the premise of chaos theory is that a very small difference in starting conditions can make a massive difference to the outcome of any event. It’s for this reason that these systems are so difficult to study.
Meteorologist Edward Lorenz of MIT termed and refined the theory. He was interested in using computers to predict weather patterns, and he quickly found that almost the same (but not precisely the same) starting data could predict hugely different weather patterns.
Lorenz likened these subtle differences to a butterfly flapping its wings, something that would later be known “as the butterfly effect”. He posited that a butterfly flapping its wings in London could set the conditions in motion that led to a hurricane in the Pacific Ocean (he actually used a tornado in Texas as an example.
So, in a nutshell, chaos theory is the attempt to explain or study the subtle starting differences in any complex system that may lead to similar or, indeed, contrasting outcomes.
Can Chaos Theory beat house edge? It’s happened before
Just like Dr Malcolm famously applied the unpredictability of chaos theory to Jurassic Park – i.e., the dinosaurs would find a way to escape – there are other ways to apply chaos theory to different situations.
One of them is the world of gambling.
But can chaos theory really be used to beat the casino?
Well, a team of researchers in 2012 put this notion to the test. The results of the study were published in the aptly named journal Chaos.
Michael Small, one of the researchers who conducted the study, said that “knowing the initial conditions allows you to beat the odds”.
Using the fundamental principles of chaos theory and laying their approach out in the journal, the researchers could accurately predict which half of the roulette wheel the ball would land on 59% of the time.
As they deduced, by making these predictions and then gambling accordingly, the researchers stood to return up to 18% on their gambling activity.
When you consider that most people’s “chances” of winning European roulette are negative 2.70% due to the in-built house edge of the game, the researcher’s winning returns are all the more impressive.
This research is enlightening, but it hardly helps the average modern-day gambler. After all, these trained researchers knew what to look for and applied advanced theoretical reasoning to their gambling strategy.
They even later admitted in their research that: “For the casino, the news is mostly good – minor adjustments will ameliorate the advantage of the physicist gambler.” One of these “minor adjustments” is simply dropping the ball from different points, something an experienced croupier would do easily.
So, the question persists – for the average gambler, can chaos theory help to beat the casino?
Chaos theory as a gambling strategy: Can it help everyday gamblers?
Casino gamblers might be familiar with even-money strategies like the Martingale or the Andrucci systems. These strategies can be used at the roulette table, but they don’t improve the punter’s odds of winning. They’re merely bankroll strategies, helpful in adopting a formulaic approach to gambling rather than a scattergun approach.
Counting cards, on the other hand, can improve a player’s chances of winning. But it’s a complicated strategy to master and requires high skill and intellect. Moreover, if a casino manager or croupier suspects you of counting cards, you will be ejected before you can profit from your strategy.
Chaos theory is more like counting cards than bankroll strategies. After all, as the researchers from 2012 proved, chaos theory can help you beat the casino if applied correctly.
But for chaos theory to successfully beat the house at the roulette table, a player would need to identify “a crooked table” that could influence the spin of the wheel. This is not to say a cheating croupier or a corrupt casino, but a table that has some type of defect.
For instance, it might have a slightly damaged spindle, a groove in the ball track that shouldn’t be there, or a worn ball. As per chaos theory, any of these deviations can cause a specific number to land more often than it should.
However, applying chaos theory to these subtle differences is immensely difficult. Also, if you’re seen scrupulously studying each roulette table in a casino for minor defects, you will be asked to leave.
Practically, in a land-based casino, it would be nearly impossible for an everyday gambler to beat the house at roulette with chaos theory.
But what about blackjack?
Well, the problem with blackjack is that it’s not a truly random game and cannot, at least mathematically, be regarded as an inherently complex system.
Small changes to the shoe at the blackjack table will not significantly alter the pattern of the deal. Therefore, chaos theory cannot be applied to blackjack the same way it can potentially be applied to the roulette table.
The bottom line: Can chaos theory beat the casino?
The enlightening study from 2012 showed that when trained researchers apply chaos theory and logic at the roulette table, it’s at least possible to improve the chances of winning.
But in reality, and for most everyday gamblers, it’s not feasible. After all, simply understanding chaos theory is difficult for most people. Then, studying roulette tables to find potential advantages would almost certainly lead you to get thrown out of a casino.
So, while it’s a nice idea and an interesting topic of conversation, studying and mastering chaos theory will not necessarily help you beat the casino, no matter how hard you try.
