Whilst betting is usually associated with sports or games – horse racing, football, poker, slots, lotteries – it is theoretically possible to bet on absolutely anything. Not just contrived games, but events in the ‘real world’. That could range from the relatively trivial – the name of a Royal baby. To the most important and consequential – who will become leader of free world.
Arguably, the real world offers superior betting opportunities. There is a mathematical chance of any future outcome, which a bookmaker or bettor can estimate. Unlike sports, that calculation will not be skewed by a bad refereeing decision, an unfortunate run of cards or your horse being brought down by another.
Politics offers the perfect example and has grown exponentially this century, showing no sign of peaking. Take the US Presidential Election.
Turnover on Betfair’s Election Winner market grew sixfold between the 2012 and 2016, then sevenfold in 2020. $1.7 billion was matched on that one market alone, with just one firm. At the time of writing, 12 weeks out from the 2024 election, the same measure is already up to $50 million and the campaigns have barely hit their stride.
Where can I bet on politics?
All the major high street firms offer odds on elections. Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfred. Starsports are always keen to offer markets. Global firms Bet365, and crypto-exchange Polymarket are also an important part of the mix.
For exchange betting, Betfair are the big players, offering the most liquidity. Spread firms such as Sporting Index offer seat total ranges on elections.
Why bet on politics?
Many bettors do so on politics for fun or to get a thrill from backing their team, as they would in sports. But plenty also treat it as a serious investment, either over short or long-term.
Predicting politics is a game of skill where knowledge pays. Luck very rarely comes into it.
In my experience as a professional gambler, the percentage returns are much higher than sports. The formbook is more reliable. Short-odds favourites very rarely lose.
Consider some recent elections. In every UK General Election this century, the favourite going into polling day won the most seats, by comfortable margins. The same party were also the favourites 100 days out. In US Presidential Elections this century, Donald Trump’s 2016 triumph is the sole exception to this rule. Similar or even stronger trends apply in constituency or district level races.
Do I need to be an expert?
No. Anybody is capable of forming a credible opinion on who will win an election. Expert predictions aren’t always right by any means. But it is definitely worth ‘reading the form’.
After 25 years in the game, I can honestly say I’m still learning all the time. The better you understand a district, electorate, the quality of a particular poll and it’s findings, the more your predictive abilities should improve. The faster you receive and digest relevant news, the better value odds you will find. The more knowledge and wider perspective gained, the easier it is to cut through the deafening media noise.
Where do I learn about it?
For polls, use respected non-partisan aggregators and models, such as fivethirtyeight.com, Decision Desk, Cook Political Report or Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Most mainstream newspapers now build or commission their own.
Absorb as much of this information as you can! Learn to differentiate between the quality or relevance of polls. Take prediction model figures (such as FiveThirtyEight) as a single guide, not a firm figure to correlate with the betting odds.
To follow the wider political conversation, read a wide range of sources, across the spectrum. Watch CNN and Fox, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. Follow the campaigns and surrogates on social media, but with the advance understanding that both are pushing their own preferred narrative. To find the truth in a post-truth world, learn to fact check and rank the accuracy of sources.
Six ways to bet on politics
1: Elections and referenda
These are the biggest events. The US Election is by far the most popular national election, followed by the UK but all major global elections are now big markets. The Argentina, Brazil and Turkey elections all recently smashed turnover records.
Likewise, though infrequent, major referenda can be huge events. Britain’s EU referendum was briefly the biggest ever single market on Betfair including sports, until usurped by Trump v Clinton in 2016. Various referenda in different states – covering issues ranging from marijuana to abortion – will attract plenty of bets in November.
In a UK election, there is a market on all 650 individual constituencies. In a US Election, on each state, Senate race and competitive House district.
2: Election derivatives
The election winner is the main, headline market but there are also an infinite supply of side markets. Often, these are where the strongest angles can be found.
For example, what will be the winning margin, in terms of either percentage or parliamentary seats?
What vote share, or seat total, will each party get?
Which result will be declared first?
3: Leadership contests and primaries
Every time a party changes leader, there is betting on who will take over. Likewise in the US, every local or national race has a primary process to choose candidates.
Unlike election betting, upsets are quite frequent. Kamala Harris traded above 50/1 to be the Democrat nominee this year. Trump was 25-1 when becoming the Republican nominee in 2016. In the UK, Liz Truss for the Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn for Labour overcame dismissive early odds.
These markets particularly reward knowledge. Identify future leaders early, or merely future candidates, and you’ll beat the market.
4: Exit dates, resignations
Whenever a leader assumes power, betting starts on when they will leave. We have just witnessed tremendous drama in the betting around Joe Biden, whether he would remain the candidate or even step down as president. The last UK parliament saw two prime ministers removed from office, Truss and Boris Johnson, earlier than desired or expected.
Again, knowledge is power. Those removals followed a process during which the keenest observers could see the writing on the wall earlier than the rest.
5: Flagship TV events
On September 10th, the first debate between Trump and Harris will generate thousands of betting markets. From who will win according to polls, to how many times a particular word is said (eg ’election’, ‘border’), to whether they will shake hands or walk out.
The recent X Spaces event between Trump and Elon Musk is another example, or the annual State of the Union address. These are primarily fun markets, for which bookies will restrict to low stakes, but very popular and entertaining to follow.
6: Trade politics like stocks
The advent of exchanges early this century transformed political betting. From being occasional standalone events, elections became a constant betting cycle. Now, rather than simply placing a bet with a bookmaker at their chosen odds, the political bettor could trade in and out of candidates. Effectively buying and selling shares as candidates fluctuated in the betting.
Within seconds of the next US Election result, betting will open on the 2028 winner, along with the nomination races for each party. Every cycle produces wild fluctuations and betting drama.
When the 2024 betting opened, Kamala Harris was the 4/1 favourite. Throughout this cycle, her odds drifted out to 149/1, before crashing into the current odds-on 10/11. Joe Biden was available at 33/1 to win in 2020 eight months out. Trump opened at 33/1 in 2016 and was available at 10/1 on the night he won in 2016.
Indeed, the drama of recent election nights has popularised in-play betting. On those nights, politics betting is as big as any sport. Both 2016 and 2020 saw huge swings in the odds and in the latter, more than half of all money traded on the main Betfair market occurred after polls closed.
If you haven’t experienced the betting on a US Election night, I strongly recommend it for November 5th!
