England have opened as clear favourites to win Group L at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Bet365 pricing them at just 1/4 to top a section containing Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and Polymarket traders pricing the Three Lions at roughly 74% to win the group, according to analysis by BritishGambler.co.uk.
England Set for a Kinder Path Than in Recent Tournaments
England will begin their campaign on 17 June in Arlington (Texas) against Croatia, a rematch of the 2018 World Cup semi-final. Thomas Tuchel’s side then face Ghana on 23 June in Foxborough (Massachusetts), before finishing the group stage against Panama on 27 June in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Thanks to England’s current FIFA ranking of fourth, winning Group L could be especially valuable. If they finish top, they would avoid Argentina, Spain and France — the world’s top three — until at least the semi-finals, provided those teams win their own groups. For a side consistently criticised for difficult tournament routes, the incentive is obvious: top the group, and the pathway becomes clearer.
Bet365’s Group L odds underline that expectation:
| Team | To Win Group | To Qualify |
|---|---|---|
| England | 1/4 | 1/100 |
| Croatia | 7/2 | 1/4 |
| Ghana | 10/1 | 8/15 |
| Panama | 50/1 | 7/4 |
While Group L looks favourable on paper, England’s task in North America goes well beyond navigating Croatia, Ghana and Panama. In outright markets, the Three Lions sit just behind the leading trio of Argentina, Spain and France, generally priced among the first wave of contenders rather than as runaway favourites.
In our wider tournament preview, we analyse how prediction markets view the race for the trophy and England’s place in it. See our analysis, “Who wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”.
How Bettors and Traders See Group L
England: Strong Favourites with a Rewarding Route
England’s odds of 1/4 to win Group L reflect both their ranking and their recent depth. With a squad expected to include Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, and Harry Kane, England are priced as a side not just expected to qualify, but to control the group from the opening match.
Tuchel’s schedule is also a factor. Facing Croatia first could allow England to seize early control. Ending against Panama — the weakest side in the group — gives England a chance to rotate players ahead of the knockouts. For bettors, that combination of order and quality explains why the Three Lions’ odds are shorter than many expected.
Croatia: Capable of the Upset, But Not the Favourite
Croatia’s 7/2 group price reflects respect without confidence. They qualified with seven wins from eight and retain their habit of punching above their weight on the world stage. With Luka Modrić set to play his fifth World Cup at age 40, Croatia remain a strong tactical and emotional force.
However, traders note that Croatia’s ageing core may be less suited to a tournament hosted in hotter North American conditions. Still, their pedigree is impossible to ignore: finalists in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022. England cannot treat them lightly in Arlington.
Ghana: Dangerous, But Priced as Inconsistent
Ghana (10/1) are viewed as a volatile dark horse — strong talent, weaker structure. Tottenham’s Mohammed Kudus headlines a group with pace and creativity, and the Black Stars have previous knockout pedigree, famously reaching the quarter-finals in 2010.
Bettors worry less about Ghana beating England and more about their potential to disrupt Croatia. If Ghana take points in the middle of the group schedule, Croatia’s 7/2 price could lengthen quickly.
Panama: Limited Chances, But an Underdog with Bite
Panama’s 50/1 price reflects expectation rather than disrespect. Ranked 30th in the world and unbeaten in qualifying, this is a better side than the one England beat 6-1 in 2018. Their danger lies less in winning the group and more in spoiling it — particularly against Ghana or a Croatia side who start slowly.
How England See It Themselves
Speaking to BBC Sport after the draw, England manager Thomas Tuchel acknowledged the group’s difficulty but emphasised the need to take first place:
“The way to approach it was to always give it the biggest respect and to put all the focus into winning the group. It always seems difficult like our group now but we are confident and we will be well prepared.”
On Croatia specifically, Tuchel added:
“Nobody should be underestimated. Of course, Croatia is the standout… but Ghana and Panama will try to make the most of their underdog role. Everyone deserves the fullest respect and we can show that.”
Who Wins Group L?
Current markets agree: England should win Group L, with Croatia positioned as the only realistic challenger. Ghana have the talent to disrupt the standings, while Panama could influence qualification without threatening the top spot.
For now, England’s odds reflect both ranking and route. Win the group, and the path to a deep run opens wide.
