“I always win when I wear my green shirt!”. Or maybe for you it’s sitting in your lucky chair, or only gambling when the clock is on an even hour…
Whatever your quirk, punters have their own psychology, their own language of luck and attitudes that surround the slot, Live Casino game or football match that happens to occupy them at the time.
That is because, however you break down the numbers, however categorically to “prove” the statistical likelihood of a win or a loss, players are, at heart, romantic creatures and we believe in the existence of fate, Ju-Ju, Kharma or whatever else you want to call it.
Gambling is a break from the drudgery of day-to-day life for many of us; it’s schedules, timetables and predictability. Wagering means the unknown, the feeling that the “big win” is just around the corner and that today, maybe today, the Gods will be shining on me.
Ok, some of you may be saying “steady on, I wouldn’t go that far!”. But the belief in myths (even among otherwise rational and science-based bods) is widespread. And long may it be so!
In today’s over-explained, technocratic world, maybe we all need to look up to the sky, feel the North wind, and ask, as we log-in to our favourite online casino, “is today my day?!”
What are the Main Myths that Punters Tell Themselves?
The “Hot Streak”
The classic myth is “I’m on a winning streak”.
Players want to play and there’s nothing like a decent win on a slot or a series of good hands at the Blackjack table to convince a punter that today’s the day!
The idea of a “Hot Hand” makes total sense on some level. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is an axiom that most of us have used from time to time and is completely in line with the survival instincts of human nature.
Change is an uncomfortable feeling for most of us, particularly if change means stopping gambling when the kitty is growing!
When it comes to playing sport, we often refer to a striker as being on a “hot streak” if they have scored for several matches in a row, or a golfer has holed a number of lengthy putts in a round.
There are even some surveys that suggest psychological changes CAN occur with a positive mindset, both for the player themselves and, conversely, in the confidence of their opponents.
But, when playing a randomised slot, with each spin and each randomised hand utterly unconnected to the previous ones, we have to conclude that the “hot hand” theory is pure myth.
Read more: The Decision Lab on the Hot Hand Fallacy
The “Gambler’s Fallacy”
The ugly sister of this construct is, of course, the “I’m due a win” approach!
Dubbed the “gambler’s fallacy”, the idea that after a bad run of “luck” a player is in line for a change in fortunes is a familiar trope, experienced by many of us.
We might add to the mix the “sunk-cost fallacy” that describes how people are reluctant to abandon a strategy, or course of action, even when it should be abundantly clear that it isn’t working. In other words, “I’ve come this far, I’m not stopping now”.
Now, this can be a worthy sentiment and a sign of deep resilience, but in gambling terms, it is very dangerous indeed.
It can lead to the overriding of carefully laid out staking plans and the irrational pursuit of a win, regardless of the cost.
The idea that past events will somehow have a bearing on future ones is at the heart of the “gambler’s fallacy”.
However, as long as you are able to keep all the “responsible gambling” plates spinning at the same, there is no harm in taking this approach.
After all, if one sees the entire span of a wagering life as one “session”, who’s to say where that session begins and ends?
Further reading: Investopedia on Gambler’s Fallacy
The “Near Miss” Theory
Software bods are clever folk and know exactly how to construct games to pique your interest to the maximum.
How often have you spun the reels and seen “cherries, cherries…nearly cherries again!” The final reel that doesn’t quite click into place, causing an emotional reaction in you that screams “nearly there!”.
The loss is real, but it occurred in a way that still gives you a bit of hope, meaning the game still has a bit of “emotional potency” for you.
There is even evidence that suggests “near-misses” have a greater impact on your play than flat-out losses. Following a narrow miss, surveys have shown that stakes can be increased and the speed of play accelerated.
These psychological drivers are powerful tools in the developer’s armoury, so gamblers should be alive to the impact they may be having, subconsciously or otherwise.
The bottom-line is that, however close a “near-miss” appears, it doesn’t change the odds on the next spin being a winner.
Research: The Near-Miss Effect in Online Slots (Palmer et al, 2024)
The “Illusion of Control”
The “illusion of control” is another myth that can befall gamblers if they are not careful.
The idea that each button press or spin on slots can be part of a “strategy” is a common belief. Gambler’s forums are full of chat about how to play bonus rounds and hit certain buttons at key moments to swing things in your favour.
But, again, there is no statistical evidence that suggests these ideas are anything other than myths.
Stop-Losses
The principle of stop-losses is a good one; a pre-ordained limit set by each punter on how much they are prepared to lose in a set time-frame, be it a month, week, day or simply the session they are involved in.
This creates a sense of security, with the maximum financial down-side known before the first hand is dealt or the first spin undertaken.
In theory…
Of course, in the heat of battle, things aren’t always that simple.
Bankroll management is crucial, but even with Player Protection Tools in place, it is still up to the individual player to bring a close to their session.
Time reminder pop-ups and deposit limits can help, but deciding on when enough is enough will always, ultimately, come down to the judgement of the player.
“Chasing losses” is a well-known phrase in the betting lexicon and describes the tendency of gamblers to break these self-imposed limits on a whim, in pursuit of that elusive win that is just around the corner.
Indeed, when the final spin or hand of the proposed pre-session budget lands on a “near-miss”, wagering discipline is even more sorely tested.
Gambling environments can make it very easy to override these limits and stop-losses. The emotions provoked by betting, such as excitement, anger and even desperation, are not conducive to making cold-blooded and rational choices.
The atmosphere, mood and technical mechanics of slots and casino games are all created to make it hard for the punter to think straight; the explosive, hypnotic graphics, the clever use of sound to flag up small wins and hint at bigger ones.
It isn’t a myth to say that the player can be in control of their session and wider wagering, but an awareness of the challenges stacked against you is, in our opinion, a non-negotiable.
See: Gamblers Help on Chasing Losses
Our Conclusion
Information is power and this is particularly true for players, so here are the main takeaways to prevent you from perpetuating punting myths.
- The odds for each spin are the same. Don’t let yourself believe otherwise.
- “Near-misses” are weaponised by the software designers to keep you playing. Flashing lights, urgent sounds, over-celebrated small wins…the list of tricks is long. Don’t be fooled!
- Give yourself a watertight pre-session budget and stick to it, come rain or shine.
- Regularly check in on your emotions while you are playing. Getting too angry, excited or “hyper”? Stop, breathe, lower your heart-rate, come back to centre and then resume or stop.
