Prediction markets tracked by BritishGambler.co.uk currently suggest that Donald Trump is more likely than not to make another trip to the United Kingdom in 2026. On Polymarket’s “Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?” market, the UK trades around 76%, placing it among the top-priced destinations alongside China (90%) and ahead of contentious stops such as Russia (49%) and Ukraine (14%).
For British readers, that pricing says two things at once. Traders expect the “special relationship” to remain central to Trump’s foreign travel plans, but they are also weighing protests, domestic politics and Trump’s increasingly sharp rhetoric about London into their forecast.
Why Trump’s Next UK Trip Matters – and How Punters Could Profit
Trump’s 2025 state visit was his second such visit to Britain and his first under King Charles III. He stayed at Windsor Castle, attended a state banquet and held talks with Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers, where both men stressed the importance of US–UK ties and unveiled new investment and technology initiatives.
It was also a politically charged three days. The visit came amid controversy over Trump’s past association with Jeffrey Epstein and coincided with the dismissal of UK ambassador Peter Mandelson over his own Epstein links. Protest groups projected images of Trump and Epstein onto Windsor Castle, petitions calling for the visit to be cancelled gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures, and a “Trump Not Welcome” march took place in London.
A YouGov poll at the time found more Britons opposed the second state visit than supported it. Against that backdrop, the UK government carefully curated Trump’s movements to minimise embarrassing demonstrations, even as both sides talked up an “unbreakable” bond.
How Prediction Markets See Trump’s 2026 Travel Map
Polymarket’s contract is structured as a set of separate yes/no markets for each country. A price of 76¢ on the UK implies traders see roughly a three-in-four chance that Trump sets foot in Britain again in 2026.
China: Almost a Certainty
China, priced at 90% with the highest trading volume, looks close to a lock. Traders appear convinced that Trump will prioritise a high-profile visit to Beijing to showcase his stance on trade, manufacturing and critical minerals. With US–China competition defining much of his second term, a China trip is the least controversial part of the forecast.
Russia vs Ukraine: The Awkward Gap
The Russia and Ukraine lines still tell their own story. Russia at 49% suggests a coin-flip chance of a meeting with Vladimir Putin, while Ukraine at just 14% reflects scepticism that Trump will visit President Zelensky in Kyiv any time soon.
Market participants seem to be pricing in Trump’s desire for a headline-grabbing summit with Moscow if he can claim progress on the war, while doubting he will take on the security and political risks of a Ukraine visit unless there is a breakthrough.
That gap mirrors earlier ceasefire prediction markets, where traders doubted Trump could quickly convert his rhetoric on a Russia–Ukraine deal into a durable agreement.
The UK: High Odds, Heavy Baggage
The United Kingdom, at 76% is where geopolitics meets public opinion. On one hand, traders expect Washington and London to keep staging the kind of set-piece diplomacy seen at Windsor and Chequers: tech investment announcements, security cooperation and joint messaging on Gaza, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. For Starmer, another visit could reinforce his access in Washington; for Trump, it offers another chance to showcase an ally backing his agenda.
On the other hand, markets cannot ignore the domestic mood. The 2025 visit triggered large-scale protests, high-profile boycotts of the banquet and arrests linked to projections criticising Trump’s Epstein ties. Since then, Trump has again attacked London Mayor Sadiq Khan, even claiming in a UN speech that the capital “wants to go to sharia law” – a claim thoroughly debunked by UK authorities and fact-checkers.
For prediction-market traders, that combination of diplomatic utility and protest risk produces a high but not certain price. A third high-profile visit in little more than a decade would be unprecedented for a US president, and it would likely be met with even more organised opposition on British streets.
Where the Forecast Stands for the UK
Looking ahead, Kalshi’s longer-dated market on “What countries will Trump visit before 2027?” doesn’t list the UK at all. In prediction-market terms, that usually means the platform sees a visit to Britain as so likely it’s not worth posting a separate line – effectively treating it as close to a 100% baseline.
Before you take a view on Trump’s next UK stop, it’s worth knowing where you can actually trade these lines – we’ve reviewed the best prediction-market apps in the UK.
What punters should watch next
- UK price on Polymarket – if the line drifts much below 70–75%, that may be an overreaction to protests or headlines rather than a real collapse in the odds of a visit.
- Russia vs Ukraine spread – a narrowing gap could signal that peace talks are finally moving and make a Kyiv trip more plausible.
- China remaining above 85–90% – any sharp drop would hint at serious diplomatic trouble and could reshuffle Trump’s entire 2026 travel calendar.
- Westminster politics – pressure on Starmer from his own MPs, or a major scandal around the visit, could still make a 2026 trip to Britain politically toxic.
- Trump’s legal and campaign schedule – court dates or a packed campaign trail in the US could force the White House to trim long-haul travel, even to close allies.
In pure prediction-market terms, the message is clear. China looks almost guaranteed, Russia is a live possibility, Ukraine is an outside shot, and the UK sits in a privileged but precarious position – valuable enough to justify another Windsor or Downing Street moment, yet controversial enough that both sides may decide to keep the relationship off the streets for a while.
Whether Trump really needs another lap of honour in the kingdom – and whether Britain wants to host it – remains an open question that traders will keep repricing with every new headline.
Where would you stake your money?
