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Fairyhouse · Monday 5 October 2026 · Off 2:30 · 2m · Going: Good · Purse: €9,000 · 4yo+
British Gambler's Picks
Composite scoring across market position, Racing Post Rating, Topspeed, recent form and trainer 14-day strike rate. Tips, not guarantees — bet responsibly.
18+ only. Tips for guidance — check terms with your bookmaker. Best Odds Guaranteed at the operators listed below.
Verdict, Market Read & Value Calls
The market makes State Pension the clear favourite (implied 50% chance) at 3/10, trained by David Harry Kelly. Midtown Manhattan is the chief market rival at 3/1.
★ Market shape · A tight race for one — State Pension is well-clear at the head of the market.
★ Top pick · Top pick: State Pension. Best price available at William Hill — historically translates to roughly a one-in-three strike rate at favourite-level pricing.
★ Each-way value · Each-way value sits with Midtown Manhattan at 3/1. The price gives place hunters a margin of safety, particularly with bookies paying Extra Places in big-field handicaps.
★ Bigger-priced angle · The bigger-priced angle: Unfortunatecharlie at 66/1. Form figures of 6/21-8 show place form within recent runs — at a double-digit price the each-way play covers downside risk if the favourites duel.
2m0f0y · Good going · Favourite's trainer is striking at 17% over the last 14 days.
Bar widths show each runner's de-overrounded market chance, based on best price. Bookmaker margins removed so the percentages total ~100%.
- State Pension 50.0% 3/10
- Midtown Manhattan 16.2% 3/1
- Crystal Mariner 8.1% 7/1
- Farney Bridge 7.2% 13/2
- Abando 7.2% 8/1
- El Bilo 3.8% 5.2
- Grey Fable 2.8% 22/1
- Je Suis Celebre 1.6% 33/1
- Paidi's Pet 1.3% 50/1
- Unfortunatecharlie 0.6% 66/1
- Little An Often 0.6% 100/1
- Geashill Poet 0.4% 150/1
Field & Odds (12 runners)
Sorted by market position. Best price shown is the lowest decimal price across the leading UK horse racing bookmakers — tap any bookie pill to bet at that price.
| No. | Horse | J / T | Form | RPR | TS | Best Price | Top Bookies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | State Pension NAP |
J: Cian Quirke T: David Harry Kelly |
2135-3 | 4/7 | |||
| 6 | Midtown Manhattan EW h |
J: Darragh O'Keeffe T: Henry de Bromhead |
1/9 | 47/10 | |||
| 1 | Crystal Mariner DH h |
J: Harry Sexton(7) T: John Joseph Hanlon |
227 | 23/1 | |||
| 2 | Farney Bridge |
J: Eoin Walsh T: John M Burke |
0144 | 31/1 | |||
| 8 | Abando |
J: James Smith(3) T: A. McCann |
3 | 18/1 | |||
| NR | El Bilo |
J: Sean Flanagan T: Paul Nolan |
20/1 | ||||
| 3 | Grey Fable t |
J: Ben Harvey T: Karl Thornton |
578/9- | 69/1 | |||
| 10 | Je Suis Celebre |
J: Daniel King T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy |
F5 | 239/1 | |||
| 12 | Paidi's Pet |
J: Simon Torrens T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy |
8 | 299/1 | |||
| 7 | Unfortunatecharlie |
J: Ms E Dunseath(7) T: Noel C. Kelly |
6/21-8 | 299/1 | |||
| 11 | Little An Often |
J: Ricky Doyle T: Mark Fahey |
8 | 499/1 | |||
| 5 | Geashill Poet |
J: Kieren Buckley T: Adrian Murray |
0 | 999/1 |
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