Can AI Beat the Bookmakers? The Best Horse Racing Prediction Tools for UK Bettors

Betting on UK horse racing dates back hundreds of years, and had until relatively recently been either a direct bet with a bookmaker at the track (or in a betting shop in the High Street), or into a totepool (traditionally more common/popular in France and the USA). Betting exchanges (Smarkets) have provided a revolution in betting on UK racing that has largely removed margin for the astute backer of horses, and now AI promises to transform the process of analysis and bet decision-making.

The emergence of AI as a way of analysing all the considerations that a punter takes into account has really begun to gather pace, with numerous professional players and syndicates now embracing a wide range of tools to enhance profitability and identify market errors that can be exploited.

Traditionally, shrewd punters on UK racing would tend to specialise in certain areas of betting in order to be able to keep up with the large volume of racing (particularly in the summer months when there can be 8+ meetings daily running through to late evening).

Some players will focus solely on 2-y-o’s or just concentrate on NH racing (over jumps), while others prefer using speed figures and sectionals as a means of pinpointing overpriced horses that the conventional early market may have overlooked.

10 Factors for any AI model to consider

Current stable form…this is extremely important and something all AI models should consider. Hot yards, with a high strike rate of winners to runners in the last two weeks, are well worth keeping on side of when considering a bet. This suggests all the team are in rude health and firing on all cylinders. By the same token, a yard struggling for winners are well worth opposing in the short term. Smaller, less well known stables (away from the public and market eye) can be a lucrative way of betting at bigger prices when they strike top form.       

The crucial effect of the draw….UK racecourses all have totally different contours and idiosyncrasies that can throw up huge biases in terms of which part of the track it is best to race on. Some are wholly predictable, such as low drawn horses being hugely advantaged at Chester (very sharp and on the turn throughout). Others can change meeting to meeting dependent on watering or the weather in the summer months in particular. Having access to 20+ years of results at all tracks can provide clear, accurate weighting as to the level of advantage to certain draws.

AI can save hours of form study and quickly identify horses that may be overpriced by the betting market.

The going ….arguably one of the most important factors in betting on UK racing, with horses tending to have a clear preference as to what surface suits them best. Most summer flat turf racing takes place on good ground or faster, which suits smooth travelling speed horses with a turn of foot. While in the wetter months (when most UK jump racing takes place), it is on ground typically with plenty of give underfoot. Discerning which horses are favoured by current ground conditions on the day of racing would be a clear advantage of using an AI model, which can quickly evaluate lifetime career performances on different surfaces and come to an accurate conclusion.

Current wellbeing…..absences from the track are a real imponderable for punters, with a break of over a month often a signal that something (probably relatively minor) may have interrupted training at home away from the track. There is no substitute for recent good form, especially in midsummer on fast ground, when conditions tend to be pretty constant and a high percentage of well fancied horses traditionally oblige. Some horses have a very good record fresh, and certain stables are expert at readying one primed first time out. An AI model can assess years of results and determine which yards that an absence from the track would be a negative or even a positive to any given runners chance.    

Improvers….the trajectory on which a horses career is going is a key consideration for all punters. Generally speaking, the young improver who has just had a handful of races is the one to side with, particularly if pitted against more exposed, older, jaded performers in handicaps. As they become more settled (drop the bit in the early stages) and become more experienced on the track, there is a likelihood that younger horses will improve up the handicap and be too good for those who have endured a series of hard races on fast ground over the years.  

Fluency of jumping over hurdles and fences….a lot of races over jumps are decided by fluency in jumping, particularly over the larger obstacles where a bad error/blunder can completely halt momentum and change the complexion of the race entirely. RaceIQ data provide hurdle by hurdle/fence by fence numbers to quantify how quickly each horse navigates each obstacle, and this could be something  that any student of the NH game would like incorporated into any AI model in this sphere. See raceiq.com on the excellent RacingTV website for a comprehensive summary of how they assess the jumping into a rating out of 10 for every runner.

Course form….the unique nature of UK racecourses do lend themselves to suiting certain horses, and they tend to reserve their very best for these optimum tracks over the years. Long-striding horses tend to prefer more galloping tracks such as Newbury or Nottingham, while speedier types might be well served by sharper, turning tracks like Bath or Chester. Learning which course suits your selection would be a key factor for any AI model to consider.  

The smartest AI models combine trainer form, going, draw bias, pace, market moves and decades of race data to identify value opportunities.

Pace in the race….how any race is going to be run is another major consideration for all shrewd racing punters. It is no good backing a trailblazing frontrunner to make all in a sprint, if there are 3 or 4 other rivals in the same race with the same plan of attack. They will very likely ruin each others chances early on, with a burn up on the lead blunting their finishing efforts at the business end.

AI can learn how a horse is best suited and when he posts his best career performances. Pace maps on the day are extremely useful, and siding with patiently ridden runners when there is a lot of speed in the race is a very good strategy.   9- Jockeys varying abilities….riders have varying skill sets and are well suited to certain horses. Ryan Moore, champion jockey on the flat and attached to the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien yard, is incredibly strong in the saddle and capable of lifting home a horse who may need plenty of driving and motivating. Conversely a 7lb claimer who is just starting out in the sport, may be a lot weaker and inexperienced, not possessing the judgement of pace or knowledge of the various tracks.

Rating the ability of jockeys is another factor to consider, though obviously the very top names are usually well found by the market on the day. If you can spot an excellent young rider early on in his career it can be a significant edge before the wider public catches up.

At the moment Billy Loughnane is enjoying a breakthrough season on the flat, while Jack Tudor over jumps is very much a jockey to keep on side of.10- Significance of the late market moves….late betting moves on the exchanges are extremely significant, with the warm money entering the fray and showing up the confidence held in horses chances by the shrewdest and biggest players in the game.

Any weakness, or bad rumour, or late change in circumstances ie sweating up in the paddock or racing freely on the way to post, can quickly change the shape of the betting market. Any AI model must consider the final SP (starting price) that is returned for every horse in every race, and compare that price with what was expected prior by the process.

Some yards are extremely market sensitive, particularly at the lower end of the scale ie low grade handicaps/claimers for very low prize money, and late market confidence (or lack of it) can be very informative and worth taking account of.

5 existing AI sites to consider for UK racing

At The Races

A very popular website for UK racing that compliments the daily TV channel Sky Sports racing, with news and databanks of form in a very user-friendly format. In recent years they have begun to build in AI modelling that the user can access free of charge. Their “predictor” (AttherAaces.com/predictor) generates suggested finishing orders for races (1,2,3,4) using huge quantities of data (draw bias, future form, value of race form, going etc etc). It is certainly a short-cut for punters who do not have the time to study hours of videos and form to formulate their selections. RATING 8/10.   

Formgenie

Formgenie.com primarily uses form and speed ratings as a means of creating a “master rating” for each horse in every race each day. This is a paid service that has a growing following and undoubtedly has an influence on UK racing betting markets. It began relatively early in this sphere in 2006 and has developed algorithms to suit their customer base, with suggestions on how to use the ratings produced by their ever-evolving algorithms (suggesting dutching the top 3 rated for example). Results are clear and transparent, and the app has received good reviews for smart-phone users.  RATING 7/10.    

Racing tipster.com

A free service that would be a good starting point for anyone who wants to dip their toe in the water without paying or subscribing. They use simpler data points for producing ratings on every UK and Irish race each day, and are a less comprehensive rival for Attheraces.com (no app a negative although the website is pretty easy to use). RATING 6/10.  

Race-ai.co.uk

This emerging AI offering is primarily focused on betting exchange users, with their “lays”, i.e. horses to oppose at the prices suggested, doing particularly well. The model looks at upto 50 individual data points per horse per race, utilising a combination of form, speed figures, trainer/jockey stats, going/ground preferences, course/distance history, market movements etc to produce predictions of the finishing order. Their racecards are certainly interesting, and while lacking the depth (and extensive database) of rivals like Attheraces, they are  improving all the time and certainly worth further investigation. RATING 6/10.

uk-outstrider.co.uk

This is a bigger operation than some of the other rivals, with 70 data points considered for every single runner every day. They produce a useful public dashboard for transparency that shows how results are going, and there is a community to discuss things online. The daily racecards provide handy breakdowns to show the rationale behind the predictions, although it is quite complicated to understand and might not suit the less experienced punter starting out. RATING 6/10.

Conclusion 

AI is constantly improving in its scope in recent years, and gives shrewd horse racing punters a clear advantage over those using more traditional methods. It can save many hours of studying and quickly identify horses who are overpriced in relation to their form chances.

Overall the Attheraces.com website has impressed me most, with their predictor model especially accurate in identifying the principal contenders. The fact it is free to use, has an excellent app, unlimited access to replays of every race video in the UK/Ireland and displays prices on offer from dozens of licensed bookmakers, means it is the most comprehensive offering in a competitive field.

Obviously its worth bearing in mind that while AI can accurately identify the leading contenders on everything they have shown in their careers (and taking into account the unique nature of UK racetracks), the races themselves are not “run on paper” and random factors (like bad luck in running or slow break from the stalls or a bad jumping mistake) can quickly change things and mean the best horse does not always win.

Explore the best horse racing bookmakers in the UK and see live racing odds today from the major British racecourses.

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